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Michael Ceres's avatar

Great article, Patrick. Thank you for sharing. From what I've read, the second part of climate change that we don't often hear about is solar influences. If my memory serves me right, Kyle Harper pointed out in his book "The Fate of Rome" that solar patterns both created and then destroyed the Roman Climactic Optimum. This makes me somewhat skeptical that humans can completely control the global mean temperature. While we do have some control, we need to be cautious and not assume that we can "cool the earth" when forces such as the Hallstatt Cycle (see link below) are beyond our control and operate in roughly 15,000-year intervals.

So, while I support efforts to reduce carbon emissions, improve water cleanliness, clean up trash from our oceans, and other measures recommended by science to control the rise in global mean temperature, we also need to focus on how we will adapt to a warmer planet. If we follow one logical conclusion, it is that since the end of the Pleistocene, the earth has been getting warmer. Similar to the stock market with its ups and downs, the overall trend is an unstoppable upward march. We see no signs, nor would we even be able to detect one, of a shift in this trend. Therefore, despite our best efforts and even if all of them are successful, I estimate that global mean temperature will continue to rise.

We should invest our efforts in preparing for a warmer planet and rising sea levels. Will we build continental sea walls to protect against the encroaching oceans? Will we develop drought-resistant crops that can thrive in longer and hotter growing seasons? It is reasonable to assume that with rising sea levels, lakes and rivers will expand. So, should coastal towns and cities relocate, or should we focus on holding back the rising waters? The list goes on, but it would be foolish to rely solely on our ability to completely control the global mean temperature.

Lastly, let's consider a scenario where the roles are reversed, and the planet is cooling. How confident are we in our ability to warm it up? Cheers!

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Thomas L. Hutcheson's avatar

Useful perspective. (I appreciate your use of climate change info in your historical podcasts!)

I'm not very sympathetic to the question how you should feel even if I agree pretty much with your answer. Rather the question should be what should you DO? Never before in history have we had the ability to predict the climatic consequences of our actions. We can act to make the climate better or worse for our own flourishing. Likewise, we can act to reduce the harm from the recent changes that we have engendered. And since we can, we should.

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